Ofsted annual report: how many schools are good?
23 Nov 2010
This year's annual report from Ofsted is a bit of a statistical tease. For reasons I'll come to in a moment, it offers no fewer than three different statistics to portray the state of England's schools.
Either 56% of schools are 'outstanding' or 'good', or 65% or - on yet another measure - 68%.
The problem arises because Ofsted's basis of inspections has changed.
On the basis of those inspected this year, the figure is 56%, with a further 37% 'satisfactory' and 8% 'inadequate'.
But this is a skewed sample since schools that were good or outstanding in the previous inspection round were not subject to re-inspection, meaning the inspection pool was skewed towards lower performing schools.
These schools were subjected to an interim risk assessment. If you include those that were considered still to be in their previous category, then the total figure for those considered 'good' or 'outstanding' rises to 65%. But this is also a dodgy figure as these risk assessments were not the same thing as a rigorous full inspection.
Finally, if you simply looked at all schools and categorised them by their last full inspection then 68% came into the top two categories.
The other change is that Ofsted has admitted it has raised the bar and now makes 'more demanding' inspections.
The result is that Ofsted can no longer give us a snap-shot of how well our schools are doing compared with the past.
And, sadly, this must also throw some doubt on the value of all its other findings (about teacher quality, for example) since these are based on an unrepresentative sample of schools.
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Mark - 23 Nov 2010
Ofsted
Not really surprised that Ofsted are producing unreliable statistics. For too long we've had 'headlines' which are picked up by some sections of the media and by some politicians and then used to attack schools. It's more than a little ironic when we have to be spot on with or data analysis when inspected or we could end up in a category. Question is, will Ofsted?
Nils Boray - 23 Nov 2010
Ofsted
The idea of 'raising the bar' is laughable if one stops to think about it. What it actually means is that they are saying that it's harder to get good and outstanding; this effectively means that even if a school drops a grade or stays the same, then it can't reliably be said to be getting worse - and since schools don't continually get better in a linear projection (no matter what OFSTED might tell you), then the 'raising of the bar' is for many schools a legitimisation of failure to progress. Since the judgements applied to schools tend to be entirely subjective anyway it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
My school was judged inadequate by a fool who didn't know the difference between PMLD (Profound & Multiple Learning Difficulties) and MLD (Moderate Learning Difficulties. I'll let you know when I get a job again.
Meanwhile I'm sure the profoundly disabled children that I've taught will soon be able, thanks to the continuous improvement and high expectations of Ofsted, to not just walk, but also to fly.
Mark - 23 Nov 2010
Ofsted
Having just read the BBC's coverage of the Ofsted report I think Mike's original thoughts and my response are justified. There was no mention that I could see that the statistics were not truly representative. Come on BBC.....